Collapse of NC-PDP front PAGD could benefit BJP

Fall of Gupkar alliance has triggered a showdown between NC and PDP, while disillusioned voters say the power struggle is against Kashmir’s interests.

BJP party flags are seen ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kashmir on March 7, in Srinagar on March 05, 2024. Some voters say that the dissolving of the PAGD alliance will help BJP “more than anyone” in Kashmir today. | Photo Credit: NISSAR AHMAD

Outspoken Kashmiri politician Ruhullah Mehdi is gearing up for the Lok Sabha election from the Srinagar seat amidst the demise of a crucial political front in Kashmir. Much to the disappointment of Mehdi and his associates, the coalition of regional parties—People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD)—ceased its operations this April, following a dramatic sequence of events. “PAGD was formed with a broader objective in mind,” says Mehdi, a former Jammu & Kashmir Minister and three-time legislator. “It was created to fight for the pre-2019 status and to engage in a struggle where parties would prioritise the interests of the people over their own electoral gains.”

A year after the Centre abrogated Jammu & Kashmir’s special status on August 5, 2019, and detained Kashmiri politicians, including three former Chief Ministers, these unionists came out of captivity and established the PAGD—a coalition primarily comprising Kashmiri political parties. The abrogation fundamentally altered the political landscape in Jammu & Kashmir. While sidelining the traditional regional parties, it achieved something even more remarkable: bringing together two historical rivals—The National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Despite PAGD’s seven-party composition, NC and PDP, as dominant forces in the valley, held considerable influence within the alliance.

However, since its formation in 2020, the PAGD alliance—framed as a constitutional battle to “return to the people of the state the rights they held before August 5, 2019”—has faced internal disputes and struggled to present a united front against the Modi government at the Centre. Even the People’s Conference (PC) led by former cabinet Minister Sajad Lone distanced itself from the alliance citing “internal conflicts”.

Although not officially an electoral coalition, in 2020 both the NC and the PDP jointly contested the first-ever District Development Council (DDC) election and secured a landslide win in the Kashmir Valley. However, the tumultuous partnership between the NC and the PDP effectively ended in early April when both parties decided to contest all three Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir separately.

While tensions in their relationship had been apparent, their disagreements over electoral strategy became public when NC Vice President Omar Abdullah stated last month that the PDP had no right to demand a seat. “The party (PDP) that stands on number 3 (in the 2019 Lok Sabha election) has no right to ask for a seat,” Omar told the media on March 8. “We (NC) didn’t keep PDP out, rather the situation has kept them out.”

The final blow to their alliance came almost a month later when the NC announced its first candidate for the Lok Sabha polls and nominated prominent Gujjar leader Mian Altaf from the crucial Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary constituency, a move seen as a rebuff by the PDP leadership, which, before the delimitation commission renamed it in 2022, considered this constituency a stronghold for their president, Mehbooba Mufti, despite her loss to National Conference’s Hasnain Masoodi in the 2019 election. “There will be no better candidate than Mian Altaf from the constituency,” Omar Abdullah said on April 1, making it clear that seat-sharing with the PDP was off the table.

‘Alliance of two principal opponents’

National Conference’s decision to nominate a candidate in Anantnag-Rajouri not only left ordinary voters puzzled but also did little to calm the tensions within the already disgruntled PDP camp. Nearly a week after the NC’s announcement, the PDP unveiled its candidates for all three parliamentary seats in Kashmir, with Mehbooba Mufti standing from Anantnag-Rajouri.

PDP President and party’s candidate for South Kashmir seat Mehbooba Mufi at a press conference in Srinagar on April 7, 2024. | Photo Credit: PTI

“It was the PDP that paved the way for the formation of PAGD,” says PDP leader Mohit Bhan. “We set aside our differences for the sake of unity, but instead, the NC used it as an opportunity to betray us. Our fight was against the BJP, but the NC’s decision turned it into a fight against the PDP, just as the BJP desired.” In the run-up to the parliamentary elections in the valley, the PDP leader asserted that his party would have continued to consider PAGD an alliance if the NC had fulfilled its role as a partner. “PAGD was formed to reclaim the rights of our people, but instead, the NC preferred power over the people and dismantled it,” he says.

However, beyond the grievances of the PDP, the NC leadership stated its intention to break the political deadlock in the valley, particularly as the BJP and its allies exert significant influence under the banner of “Naya (new) Kashmir”.

That’s why, during deliberations with its partner in the INDIA bloc, the Congress, both parties agreed that even if the PDP were to win in South Kashmir, they would likely lose overall. This reasoning justified the decision to field an NC candidate in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency.

“If the PDP had won there [Anantnag-Rajouri], they would have lost by a large margin overall to the BJP,” explains an NC leader familiar with the discussions. “That’s why the Congress preferred an NC candidate, as we stand a better chance of winning than the PDP.”

Despite the seat-sharing agreement during the DDC elections, where NC and PDP won a combined 68 seats, with NC securing 42 seats and PDP 26 across the Valley, the NC now believes that the alliance with PDP was a mistake. “In the DDC election, the PDP claimed more seats than they were entitled to,” says the NC leader. “Their argument was based on the 2014 Assembly election, which NC accommodated. Considering that NC currently holds all three parliamentary seats in the Kashmir Valley, why does the PDP now seek one seat? Isn’t this hypocrisy?”

“We’ve learned our lesson,” says the NC leader. “This time, we won’t relinquish our share”. However, despite the reasoning provided by NC leaders for their decision to contest separately in the elections, political observers argue that the PAGD alliance effectively dissolved following NC’s dominance in the DDC.

Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and Vice President of the National Conference (NC) party Omar Abdullah (R), NC President Farooq Abdullah (C) and party senior leader Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi in Srinagar on April 12, 2024. | Photo Credit: TAUSEEF MUSTAFA

“After the DDC election, the PAGD seemed to lose much of its relevance and the competitive politics became pragmatic,” says Rekha Chowdhary, a political observer based in Jammu. “The PDP’s diminished capacity to contest effectively meant that NC recognised the extent of PDP’s stakes in the PAGD and understood its dependency on the alliance. It became apparent that PDP would have gained some political space through PAGD.”

“The alliance was always bound to face challenges,” says Mehdi, the NC candidate for Srinagar, adding that PAGD was primarily an alliance of two principal adversaries. “Ultimately, the political parties prioritise electoral gains and benefits over the constitutional guarantees that people lost after 2019.”

Many accusations

Although the Lok Sabha election has traditionally held minimal importance in Kashmir’s politics, the preparations of both parties for a showdown in the upcoming election explain the deepening divide between the NC and the PDP.

Despite announcing individual candidates for all three seats in the Kashmir valley, the two parties continue to engage in a war of words, accusing each other of fragmenting the electorate, causing confusion among voters, and splitting the votes. NC’s chief spokesperson, Tanvir Sadiq, recently alleged that the PDP’s sole motive for being in the PAGD was to secure a seat from the NC. “Mehbooba Mufti should have supported NC candidates instead of fielding three PDP candidates, knowing it would divide the vote,” says Sadiq. “By contesting for a parliamentary seat, she sacrificed the unity of PAGD.”

However, for many within the PDP, the events of August 2019 are viewed as a direct assault aimed at dismantling their party, compelling them to stand firm in the upcoming election and resist conceding ground to other parties. “If we start sacrificing our seats for other parties, it would mean shutting down our own party and exiting politics,” says a PDP leader. “After all, the existence of a political party depends on elections, doesn’t it?”

Mehdi attributes the underlying fractures within the alliance to the influence of New Delhi. “I suspect that there are people in both political parties that have been planted by Delhi to dismantle the alliance,” says Mehdi. “To a large extent, they have been successful in doing so.”

He quickly asserted that the initial charges and allegations from the PDP against the NC provided an opportunity for voices within his party to argue against forming an alliance with the PDP. “There were also voices within the NC that believed we had better prospects than the PDP and therefore should not cede space to them,” says Mehdi. “Even after experiencing the darkest days on August 5, 2019, we, the NC and PDP, have failed to find a common cause to unite.”

‘Benefit to BJP’

Besides causing uncertainty and instability, the collapse of PAGD and the growing discord between the NC and the PDP are believed to have profound implications for Kashmir’s politics. Observers say the split in votes between these two regional players could benefit the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially in Anantnag-Rajouri, despite the party never having won a parliamentary seat in Kashmir.

According to Kashmir-based political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba, the dissolution of PAGD benefits the BJP, which has heavily invested in the South Kashmir constituency by linking it with Rajouri and Poonch. “The main two parties in the alliance were the NC and the PDP, which held significant influence,” says Baba. “For both parties, there was always limited commitment to the broader cause of safeguarding Kashmir’s regional interests. Instead, parochial party interests took precedence.”

Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) leader and Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference (JKANC) Senior Vice-President Muzaffar Shah at a press conference, in Srinagar on March 9, 2024. | Photo Credit: PTI

Baba argues that the NC viewed the PDP as a hindrance in the current political landscape. “For them, PDP was operating at the expense of its regional interests,” he adds. One reason for the alliance breaking apart is the NC’s confidence in its extensive presence across the valley, unlike the PDP. They rely on the prevailing anti-BJP sentiment in Kashmir and believe they can secure votes without needing an alliance with the PDP.

“Especially this time, the NC saw the PDP as a vulnerable and internally weakened party,” notes Baba. “PDP’s traditional leadership is gone, and there is also reason for the NC to believe that Kashmiris still hold PDP responsible for the developments following the 2014 election. So, the NC capitalised on the PDP’s weaknesses and distanced itself from the alliance.”

However, the BJP believes that the formation of PAGD was primarily aimed at ensuring the continued relevance of the PDP and the NC in Kashmiri politics following the events of 2019. “It was always a charade,” states J&K BJP leader Altaf Thakur. “But as the election approached, their camaraderie ended abruptly. This clearly indicates that the alliance was never formed for the people but for the desire to regain power.”

Clearly, the ongoing strife between the two parties and the end of the alliance has left local Kashmiris disillusioned, who accuse both parties of prioritising power struggles over the interests of the people, especially regarding the constitutional changes in the erstwhile State after 2019. “The same parties chose elections over the people’s movement for the lost prestige,” says Mohammed Yaqoob Dar, who runs a convenience store in Srinagar. “It’s in their nature to buy time and resort to theatrics only to normalise the wrongful decisions in Kashmir.”

A disillusioned Dhar says that the NC and the PDP accuse others of being covert BJP allies, but in reality, by dissolving their own alliance, they are helping BJP more than anyone. “Sadly, for power, they are risking Kashmir in yet another election year.”

Zaid Bin Shabir is a journalist based in Srinagar